[Report] Morgan Stanley | The Recession Playbook

Published on Jul 28, 20192 min read21 views

The Great Depression (1927). The Great Recession (2008). Times when there were massive financial crises in the world, crippling global economies. Experts who track the history of financial markets and global economies say that a market correction occurs every 10 or so years. There are several indicators that predict these market correction events - an inverted yield curve being one of them. These same experts claim that the next market correction is long over due.

What began as a slow-down in global economies in late-2018 has continued in 2019 and is likely to spill over into 2020, as per experts. One among these experts is Morgan Stanley (MS) that has an arm in virtually every financial instrument there is to be traded. Some say, these experts are the very reason recessions occur but who can say for sure.

Anyway, MS, in July, 2019 released a ~70 page note to its investors called the Recession Playbook. In this note, MS economists, in true MS style, detail out every single indicator that points to a pending recession. It even goes to the extent of saying a recession is likely to come by Q3FY2020 or Q1FY2020. Further, they highlight that they believe there is a 13% change a recession will occur in Q32020 - however, as per their own subjective analysis, it's a 20% chance. The report also covers how to manage assets (investments) in such an environment. Economists at MS play with so much data and present it so neatly and concisely, that I love it - the report.

There are a lot of gems related to financial markets, global economies and general investment ideas in this report that truly make it a good read. If you are interested in these fields, you will not be disappointed. Download the report by clicking here or the image below.


Note: All blogs posts till 2022 were migrated to this platform (react+next+tailwind). While all efforts were made to migrate wihtout any loss, the migration lost some images and broke a bunch of links in old posts. If you spot anything amiss, please notify me?